432
FXUS21 KWNC 191822
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 19 2026
SYNOPSIS: TODAY'S MODEL ENSEMBLES PREDICT A MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST AND A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
DURING WEEK-2. IN ADDITION, A LESS AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) IS PREDICTED TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. SLIGHT RISK AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
WESTERN TROUGH, AND POSSIBLY AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE WESTERN TROUGH ALSO PROMOTES A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE KLAMATH AND SIERRA MOUNTAIN RANGES IN
CALIFORNIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD, AND A DEVELOPING STORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, ARE FORECAST TO
RESULT IN A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE PERIOD, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NEIGHBORING STATES.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF OREGON AND CALIFORNIA,
TUE-MON, OCT 27-NOV 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND FAR WESTERN
TEXAS, THU-SAT, OCT 29-31.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND PARTS OF NEIGHBORING STATES, SAT-MON, OCT 31-NOV 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE KLAMATH AND SIERRA MOUNTAIN RANGES, TUE-MON,
OCT 27-NOV 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST STATES,
TUE-FRI, OCT 27-30.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 22 - MONDAY OCTOBER 26:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 27 - MONDAY NOVEMBER 02: A MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST IS FORECAST TO BRING ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW TO MUCH OF WESTERN OREGON, AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING WEEK-2. THE ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES
TOOL (PET) DEPICTS AT LEAST A 30-PERCENT CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 1-INCH IN THESE AREAS, THOUGH
THE GEFS PET IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER. A SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
THEREFORE POSTED FOR PARTS OF OREGON AND CALIFORNIA FOR THE DURATION OF WEEK-2,
AS WELL AS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE KLAMATH AND SIERRA MOUNTAIN
RANGES OF CALIFORNIA. UNCALIBRATED ECENS GUIDANCE SHOWS AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF
4-6 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER IN THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA. OVER THE LOWER FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
POSTED, FROM OCT 29-31. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN TROUGH, AND ALSO POSSIBLE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE THIS SEASON. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF 0.50-0.75 INCHES ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THIS REGION.
IN CONTRAST, ON THE EAST COAST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CORN
BELT AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST,
ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING OF THE REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT,
RESULTING IN HIGH WINDS (MODELS AND ASSOCIATED TOOLS INDICATE SPEEDS REACHING
20-25 MPH, GUSTING TO OVER 35 MPH). A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS EXTENDS FROM
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, VALID OCT 27-30. WITH TIME, AS THE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST, THE HIGH WIND HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO
FOCUS FARTHER SOUTH.
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK-2, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE
WESTERN GULF NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. THE ECENS PET IS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS WET SIGNAL, WITH AT LEAST A
20-PERCENT CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND TOTALS OF ABOUT AN INCH. THE GEFS PET IS NOT AS
BULLISH, AND FAVORS JUST THE FAR LOWER PART OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION NOTED ABOVE IS VALID FOR OCT 31-NOV 2.
IN ALASKA, THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF WEEK-2. WHILE THE ECENS SLOWLY WEAKENS THIS RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
THE GEFS AND CMCE BREAK IT DOWN CONSIDERABLY FASTER, WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
FORECAST OVER THE STATE BY LATE WEEK-2. NO HAZARDS ARE POSTED TODAY FOR ALASKA.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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