722  
FXUS10 KWNH 161831  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
131 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2018  
 
VALID FEB 16/1200 UTC THROUGH FEB 20/0000 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
12Z MODEL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT  
RANGE FORECASTS.  
 
 
LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND  
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN SEEN EARLIER AND  
LIES WITHIN THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. A COMPROMISE OF  
THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z GFS, 12Z NAM, 12Z CANADIAN, AND 12Z UKMET IS  
PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST  
PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE PLAINS/MIDWEST  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON NAM-BLEND; CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
AS USUAL, THE 12Z NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH --  
ITS USUAL BIAS. AS THE SURFACE, ITS LOW DEPICTION IN IA LATE  
TUESDAY FALLS OUTSIDE THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD. A  
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS, 12Z UKMET, 12Z ECMWF, AND 12Z CANADIAN  
IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
 
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ROTH  

 
 
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