683  
FXHW01 KWNH 221228  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
727 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI FEB 23 2018 - 00Z FRI MAR 02 2018  
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLE AGREE AND A FAVORED COMPOSITE  
SOLUTION SHOWS A BLOCKY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE  
EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC HIGHLIGHTED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST  
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A DOWNSTREAM NARROW RIDGE ALONG 150W.  
THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD  
ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO FUEL POTENTIAL OF  
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN ABOUT 1  
1/3 TO 1 3/4 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE  
FOR LATE FEBRUARY.  
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE STATE AND WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS BIG ISLAND SUMMITS OF MAUNA  
LOA AND MAUNA KEA.  
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MAY FORM NEXT WEEK JUST WEST OF 170W WHICH MAY  
PULL THE PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS WESTWARD NEXT WEEK, PERHAPS WEST  
OF KAUAI/NI'IHAU.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 

 
 
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