969  
FXHW01 KWNH 231230  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
729 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SAT FEB 24 2018 - 00Z SAT MAR 03 2018  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL RADARS SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN  
ONGOING ACROSS HAWAII WITH HEAVIEST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY  
CONCENTRATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ISLANDS IN AN AXIS OF  
DEEPENED TROPICAL MOISTURE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT  
ACROSS THE STATE AND WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS  
THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS OF MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA.  
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLY AGREE AND A FAVORED COMPOSITE  
SOLUTION STILL SHOWS A BLOCKY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER  
THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC HIGHLIGHTED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE  
NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A DOWNSTREAM NARROW RIDGE  
ALONG 150W. THIS SETUP IS FAVORING A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL  
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS  
TO FUEL POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO  
BETWEEN ABOUT 1 1/3 TO 1 3/4 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH IS  
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY.  
 
THE LEAD CLOSED LOW IS SLATED TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE STATE SUNDAY.  
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MAY FORM IN ITS WAKE INTO NEXT MIDWEEK JUST WEST  
OF 170W. THIS MAY PULL THE DEEPEST PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS  
WESTWARD NEXT WEEK, PERHAPS WEST OF KAUAI/NI'IHAU. TRADES SHOULD  
MEANWHILE BUILD THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES  
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IN A PATTERN WITH LIMITED WINDWARD  
TERRAIN SHOWERS.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 

 
 
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