904  
FXHW01 KWNH 251226  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
726 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018  
 
VALID 00Z MON FEB 26 2018 - 00Z MON MAR 5 2018  
 
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER HAWAII AND  
THE ADJACENT WATERS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO ABATE DURING THE SHORT RANGE  
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW  
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTH. A  
STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BETWEEN HAWAII AND  
CALIFORNIA GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH  
STEADY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY  
OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SHOWERS, WITH THE AXIS OF GREATEST QPF  
CENTERED NEAR 165W OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC.  
 
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC  
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE HAWAII DOMAIN GOING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF  
THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
A HINT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS  
INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE, WITH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS SITUATED  
GENERALLY NEAR 150W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND  
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE EC MEAN IS SLIGHTLY MORE  
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAN THE GEFS MEAN, WITH BOTH  
SOLUTIONS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE BY NEXT SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK  
UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY FORM NEAR 170W BY FRIDAY ACCORDING TO BOTH  
THE GEFS AND EC MEANS. THIS MAY ONCE AGAIN ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE  
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE END  
OF THE WEEK. NO COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS  
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  
 
D. HAMRICK  
 

 
 
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