517  
FXHW01 KWNH 261224  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
724 AM EST MON FEB 26 2018  
 
VALID 00Z TUE FEB 27 2018 - 00Z TUE MAR 6 2018  
 
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS NORTHWEST  
OF THE STATE WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTH. A STRONG SURFACE  
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BETWEEN HAWAII AND CALIFORNIA THROUGH  
THURSDAY WITH STEADY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF  
MAINLY OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SHOWERS, WITH THE AXIS OF GREATEST  
QPF CENTERED NEAR 165W OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC.  
 
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC  
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE HAWAII DOMAIN GOING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF  
THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
A HINT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS  
INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE MAIN  
RIDGE AXIS SITUATED GENERALLY NEAR 150W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS  
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE EC  
MEAN REMAINS SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
THAN THE GEFS MEAN, WITH BOTH SOLUTIONS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE BY  
NEXT SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY FORM NEAR 170W BY  
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GEFS AND EC MEANS.  
THIS MAY ONCE AGAIN ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE  
WESTERNMOST PART OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE  
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BECOMES  
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS.  
 
D. HAMRICK  
 

 
 
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