506  
FXHW01 KWNH 271224  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
723 AM EST TUE FEB 27 2018  
 
VALID 00Z WED FEB 28 2018 - 00Z WED MAR 7 2018  
 
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC  
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE HAWAII DOMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A HINT  
OF A TEMPORARY OMEGA BLOCK FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC  
IS INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,  
WITH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS SITUATED GENERALLY NEAR 150W WITH UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGHS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL  
HIGH. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE EC MEAN REMAINS SLIGHTLY MORE  
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAN THE GEFS MEAN, WITH BOTH  
SOLUTIONS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE BY NEXT SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK  
UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY FORM NEAR 170W BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY  
ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GEFS AND EC MEANS. THIS MAY ONCE AGAIN  
ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST PART OF  
THE ISLANDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE BECOME APPARENT IN THE MID-LATITUDE  
FLOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY WITH RESPECT TO  
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM NORTH OF 40N. THE GEFS MEAN IS MORE  
SUPPRESSED WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRINGS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND  
A COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE STATE THAN THE EC MEAN THAT IS  
INDICATING MORE OF A MEAN LEVEL RIDGE. GIVEN THE BETTER  
CONTINUITY WITH THE EC MEAN, THIS MODEL IS CURRENTLY PREFERRED FOR  
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
D. HAMRICK  
 

 
 
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