668  
FXHW01 KWNH 051214  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
713 AM EST MON MAR 05 2018  
 
VALID 00Z TUE MAR 06 2018 - 00Z TUE MAR 13 2018  
 
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A NARROW RIDGE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AND  
AN EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT AND  
ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY. THE TREND  
TOWARD LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE  
BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN ELONGATING UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE JUST  
NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH  
MAY HOLD MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OVER THE BIG ISLAND FOR A  
TIME BUT ELSEWHERE THE LOW PWATS SHOULD HELP TO OFFSET ANY  
INSTABILITY THUS KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS  
TROUGH SHOULD PASS BY ON FRIDAY AND LIFT AWAY THEREAFTER. THEN  
MODELS/ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON SOME DETAILS OF FLOW ALOFT BUT POINT TO  
STABLE OR SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. CENTRAL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A WESTERN PACIFIC HIGH  
THAT MERGES WITH IT THURSDAY-FRIDAY WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO BRISK  
NORTHEASTERLY TRADES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY SATURDAY-MONDAY  
GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT ON THE STRENGTH/SHAPE/POSITION OF HIGH  
PRESSURE BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT IN PRINCIPLE THAT THE SURFACE  
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE EASTWARD TO TURN TRADES MORE EASTERLY OVER THE  
ISLANDS. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY LIGHT AND WINDWARD  
FOCUSED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.  
 
RAUSCH  
 

 
 
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