207  
FXHW01 KWNH 071219  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
719 AM EST WED MAR 07 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU MAR 08 2018 - 00Z THU MAR 15 2018  
   
..HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK
 
 
TRADES WILL BE BRISK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INTO NEXT WEEK AS A  
VERY STRONG 1050MB HIGH APPROACHES THE DATELINE FRIDAY BUT WEAKENS  
AS IT MOVES PAST 170W NEXT MONDAY TO ABOUT 1030MB. EXPECT MAINLY  
LIGHT WINDWARD SHOWERS WITH SOME SPILLOVER TO THE LEEWARD SIDE ON  
NE TO ENE WINDS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLOWLY FALL OVER THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
BY THE WEEKEND, A TROUGH WILL DIG WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF HAWAI'I  
AROUND 40N AND MOVE EASTWARD AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE AXIS  
MOVES PAST 170W, WHICH ALLOWS A WEAKNESS TO ITS SOUTH TO LIFT  
NORTHEASTWARD. THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES REFLECT THIS AT THE SURFACE BY  
NEXT TUE/WED WITH LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION  
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. ENSEMBLE QPF IS QUITE HIGH FOR A 7-8 DAY  
LEAD TIME, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY OR EVEN WIDESPREAD  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN LOCATION AS THEY  
DIFFER EAST-WEST WHICH MEANS THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL COULD MISS  
HAWAI'I BUT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT ALL OF IT WILL GIVEN THE UPPER  
PATTERN.  
 
FRACASSO  
 

 
 
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