598
FXUS10 KWNH 290637
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2019
VALID JUL 29/0000 UTC THRU AUG 01/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
..07Z UPDATE
OUTSIDE OF SMALLER SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA PLACEMENT, THERE WERE
NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EVOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET/CMC COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS 12Z CYCLES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE REPRESENTED BY RIDGING CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
TROUGHING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TROUGHING APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OR
ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK. THERE
ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND SUFFICES FOR THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
..WEST COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND, OR BLEND OF GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEANS
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
..07Z UPDATE
THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC HELD CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR PREVIOUS 12Z
CYCLES CONCERNING THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE, BUT CONVERGED A BIT WITH
THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE, THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THINKING WITH RESPECT TO THE
PREFERENCE AND A MIDDLE GROUND CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND ALSO FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST.
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO REACH
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND RECOMMENDED.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HOWEVER, MAINLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH HOW A CLOSED
LOW EVOLVES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC TAKE THIS FEATURE FARTHER
INLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE CARRYING A SECONDARY PORTION OF
ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OTHER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE 00Z
NAM/GFS HOLD ONTO THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WITH BROADER TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. GIVEN THE SPREAD OBSERVED IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH POOR CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN IN
THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH SEEMS
BEST...LOCATED BETWEEN THE 18Z GEFS AND 12Z ECMWF MEANS.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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