989
FXUS10 KWNH 310644
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 AM EDT WED JUL 31 2019
VALID JUL 31/0000 UTC THRU AUG 03/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION AND FINAL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERVIEW OF THE CONUS FEATURES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
..07Z UPDATE
ENOUGH NUDGES WERE MADE WITH THE 00Z UKMET/CMC CONCERNING
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TOWARD THE REMAINING
MODEL CONSENSUS TO INCLUDE THEM AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE. LITTLE
CHANGES WERE NOTED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z
CYCLE. THEREFORE, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS RECOMMENDED.
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
TROUGH LOCATED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS TWO COMPONENTS,
ONE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND A SOUTHERN PORTION NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, WITH FORECASTS SHOWING
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT.
MEANWHILE, A CLOSED LOW JUST WEST OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE/SMALL CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND
NEAR THE COASTS OF WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES ACROSS THE
CONUS BUT THE 12Z CMC IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE,
WHICH ORIGINATES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY, AS IT TRACKS AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AMONG THE REMAINING
00Z NAM, 00Z GFS, 12Z ECWMF AND 12Z UKMET, THE 12Z UKMET HAS SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE
MIDWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOME NORTH/SOUTH DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE WITH A SURFACE LOW IN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA, BUT ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS A BIT LARGER TODAY BEYOND 12Z/02 WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
SOMEWHAT. WHILE AGREEMENT OUTSIDE OF THE 12Z CMC IS RELATIVELY
GOOD, THE 12Z ECMWF, 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS SHOW THE BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE ENSEMBLES AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
OTTO
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