630   
FXUS10 KWNH 051609  
PMDHMD  
  
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1208 PM EDT MON AUG 05 2019  
  
VALID AUG 05/1200 UTC THRU AUG 09/0000 UTC  
  
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
  
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE  
  
RELATIVELY PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH  
THE NEXT 3 DAYS, FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND  
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US. A CLOSED  
MID/UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST  
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ONSHORE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. THE MOST ACTIVE/SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
LIKELY TO TRACK THROUGH.  
  
OVERALL, MODEL AGREEMENT IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS,  
WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE. 500  
MB HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE MODEL SPREAD WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OFFERED  
AT THE SURFACE. AS SUCH, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS FAVORED AS THIS  
TIME.  
  
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
  
TAYLOR  
  
  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab HPC Page

Main Text Page