630
FXUS10 KWNH 051609
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1208 PM EDT MON AUG 05 2019
VALID AUG 05/1200 UTC THRU AUG 09/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
RELATIVELY PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
THE NEXT 3 DAYS, FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US. A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ONSHORE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MOST ACTIVE/SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO TRACK THROUGH.
OVERALL, MODEL AGREEMENT IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS,
WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE. 500
MB HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE MODEL SPREAD WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OFFERED
AT THE SURFACE. AS SUCH, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS FAVORED AS THIS
TIME.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
TAYLOR
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