352
FXUS10 KWNH 290510
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
109 AM EDT THU AUG 29 2019
VALID AUG 29/0000 UTC THRU SEP 01/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NEAR THE 12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THE SOUTHERN END OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOWER AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING REDEVELOPS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER CA/AZ WILL
TRANSLATE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
A SHORTWAVE NEARS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THE GREATEST DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE CONUS ARE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. ARE WITH THE WESTERN END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A MCS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KANSAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON THE
LATITUDE OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE 00Z NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY SINKING WELL
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
MOST REASONABLE REGARDING RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS. AT 500 MB, THE 12Z UKMET/00Z GFS APPEAR
TO BE FLATTER/FASTER (RESPECTIVELY) WITH THE CORRESPONDING TROUGH
AXIS SATURDAY MORNING. THE 12Z UKMET APPEARS TO HAVE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WHILE THE 12Z CMC IS AN OUTLIER WITH ITS NORTHERN SURFACE
WAVE POSITION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS PREFERRED
GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT.
..TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF CLOSEST TO 03Z NHC ADVISORY
CONFIDENCE: REFER TO NHC
THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRENGTH OF ERIN
THROUGH FRIDAY DEPICTING A WEAKER SYSTEM RELATIVE TO THE REMAINING
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE 12Z UKMET/CMC ARE DISPLACED EAST OF
THE 03Z ADVISORY NHC TRACK WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM ARE CLOSEST
TO NHC.
..HURRICANE DORIAN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/UKMET CLOSEST TO 03Z NHC ADVISORY
CONFIDENCE: REFER TO NHC
THE 00Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET ARE CLOSEST TO THE 03Z NHC
ADVISORY TRACK REGARDING HURRICANE DORIAN THROUGH ABOUT SATURDAY
MORNING. AFTER THIS POINT IN TIME, THE 00Z GFS DEVIATES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE NHC FORECAST POSITIONS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET REMAIN
CLOSE TO THE NHC TRACK. THE 12Z CMC IS A FASTER OUTLIER WITH
DORIAN WHILE THE 00Z NAM IS SLOWER WITH THE TRACK.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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