837   
FXUS10 KWNH 010516  
PMDHMD  
  
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
115 AM EDT SUN SEP 01 2019  
  
VALID SEP 01/0000 UTC THRU SEP 04/1200 UTC  
  
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
  
00Z PRELIMINARY MODEL EVALUATION, CONFIDENCE, AND PREFERENCES  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: 18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE  
  
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST  
AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED IN  
THE BROAD EVOLUTION, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT ARISE  
IN DAY 2, AND EVEN MORESO ON DAY 3, ACROSS THE NW AND NORTHERN  
TIER. A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACNW WILL EJECT EASTWARD MONDAY  
INTO TUESDAY, WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING QUICKLY IN ITS  
WAKE. THE CMC IS VERY QUICK TO PUSH THIS ENERGY EASTWARD,  
OUTPACING THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS CONSIDERABLY. THE GFS IS ON THE  
OTHER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM, WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING SO SLOWLY  
THAT IT HANGS BACK AND CUTS OFF INTO A MID-LEVEL LOW WHERE THE  
REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS UPSTREAM RIDGING. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS  
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IS MODESTLY FAST EMBEDDED WITHIN  
A 90 KT UPPER JET. THE UKMET IS USABLE, BUT ITS HEIGHTS ARE A FEW  
DM HIGHER AS IT MAINTAINS THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE MORE STRONGLY  
THAN THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. THE NEW NAM LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE THE  
ECMWF AND THE 18Z GEFS MEAN, BRINGING SOME CONSISTENCY TO  
OTHERWISE MESSY 60-84 HOUR MASS FIELDS.  
  
   
..HURRICANE DORIAN  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PLEASE REFER TO THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST  
TRACK  
  
THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TO THE 03Z NHC TRACK  
INTO DAY 2. BEYOND THAT, THE ECMWF SLOWS CONSIDERABLY AND NEARLY  
STALLS NEAR THE BAHAMAS, AND THE NHC TRACK BECOMES MORE ALIGNED  
WITH THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z UKMET. THIS SUGGESTS A BLEND OF THE 3  
GIVES SOMETHING CLOSE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK, BUT UTILIZING MORE  
WEIGHT ON THE ECMWF EARLY, LEANING MORE ON THE GFS LATE.  
  
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
  
WEISS  
  
  
 
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