118
FXUS10 KWNH 020743
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2019
VALID SEP 02/0000 UTC THRU SEP 05/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z FINAL MODEL EVALUATION, CONFIDENCE, AND PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
07Z UPDATE: THE NON-NCEP 00Z SUITE SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE
12Z, SO THE PREFERENCES REMAIN UNCHANGED. THE UKMET MAY BE A BIT
AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE CONSENSUS IN THE DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, BUT REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE SO CAN CONTINUE WITHIN THE PREFERRED BLEND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE
EAST. THERE IS LITTLE VARIATION IN THE GUIDANCE, AND THE FEATURES
DETERMINING THE PREFERRED BLEND ARE GENERALLY SMALLER SCALE. THE
NAM DEEPENS THE EASTERN TROUGH A LITTLE TOO MUCH WHEN COMPARED TO
THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS. AND IS ALSO MUCH FLATTER WITH HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE NW. OTHERWISE, THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z NON-NCEP SUITE ARE WELL
CLUSTERED DESPITE SMALL TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES IN A SHORTWAVE MOVING
EASTWARD FROM THE PACNW INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES, QPF FIELDS ARE WELL ALIGNED SO A BLEND WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OF THE GLOBAL SUITE EXCEPT THE NAM IS REASONABLE.
..HURRICANE DORIAN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PLEASE REFER TO THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST
TRACK
A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/00Z GEFS MEAN PROVIDES THE BEST
PROXY TO THE 03Z NHC ADVISORY TRACK. THE 00Z GFS DETERMINISTIC IS
VERY CLOSELY TIED TO THE TRACK THROUGH 48-60 HOURS, BUT THEN
BECOMES A BIT FAST AND LEFT OF THE TRACK, WHILE THE GEFS MEAN
REMAINS NEARLY ON TOP OF THE FORECAST POINTS, SO IS PREFERRED MORE
THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
WEISS
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