345   
FXUS10 KWNH 070630  
PMDHMD  
  
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
229 AM EDT SAT SEP 07 2019  
  
VALID SEP 07/0000 UTC THRU SEP 10/1200 UTC  
  
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
  
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND, LESS GFS AFTER 12Z MONDAY  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE  
  
MODELS ARE COMPARABLE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT  
RANGE. SLIGHT TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED AS AN UPPER  
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
TODAY/TONIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUN. MODELS SHOW GOOD  
AGREEMENT THAT A SECOND, MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE  
ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST LATER TODAY, CROSSING THE GREAT  
BASIN/ROCKIES ON SUN. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS  
FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MON, THE GFS BECOMES FASTER  
THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS, THE RESULT OF A FASTER AND WEAKER UPPER  
SHORTWAVE BY THAT TIME RELATIVE TO OTHER GUIDANCE. ANOTHER  
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WEST COAST MON MORNING, PART OF  
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS ARE  
REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY  
MINOR TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES NOTED. GIVEN THESE  
CONSIDERATIONS, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS PREFERRED, WITH LESS  
EMPHASIS ON THE GFS AFTER 12Z MONDAY DUE TO ITS DIFFERENCES ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  
  
   
..HURRICANE DORIAN  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PLEASE REFER TO THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST  
TRACK. MODELS SHOWED RELATIVELY GOOD CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE  
TRACK OF DORIAN THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES  
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN GENERAL, A NON-NAM BLEND  
OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOULD REPRESENT THE NHC FORECAST TRACK  
WELL.  
  
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
  
RYAN  
  
  
 
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