424  
FXUS10 KWNH 100425  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1225 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2019  
 
VALID SEP 10/0000 UTC THRU SEP 13/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
 
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND, STRONGEST WEIGHTS TO...  
12Z ECMWF, 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, 18Z GEFS MEAN  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE  
 
MODELS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF CONVERGING OVER THE PAST COUPLE MODEL  
CYCLES, AND ARE NOW IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC  
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THEIR MASS FIELD  
FORECASTS AS A TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE  
DAYS, WITH SOME MORE SPREAD EMERGING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING  
(12.00Z).  
 
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM SHOW THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURES FROM  
ENSEMBLE MEANS OUT OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, BUT ARE  
STILL GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE FULL ENSEMBLE DISTRIBUTION AS  
REASONABLE POSSIBILITIES. FURTHERMORE, THEIR QPF IS SIMILAR IN  
MANY RESPECTS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.  
 
THEREFORE, A BROAD MODEL BLEND IS THE PREFERENCE, WITH SLIGHTLY  
LESS WEIGHT ON THE GFS AND NAM, AND GREATER WEIGHT ON THE ECMWF  
AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHICH HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT.  
 
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
LAMERS  
 

 
 
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