760
FXUS10 KWNH 100624
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2019
VALID SEP 10/0000 UTC THRU SEP 13/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND, STRONGEST WEIGHTS TO...
00Z ECMWF, 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, 00Z GEFS MEAN
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
---06Z UPDATE---
NO CHANGE TO THE PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY CONVERGE WITH THEIR MASS FIELD FORECASTS OF THE TROUGH
PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., AND GREATEST WEIGHT IS
STILL GIVEN TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
---PREVIOUS DISCUSSION---
MODELS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF CONVERGING OVER THE PAST COUPLE MODEL
CYCLES, AND ARE NOW IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THEIR MASS FIELD
FORECASTS AS A TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS, WITH SOME MORE SPREAD EMERGING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
(12.00Z).
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM SHOW THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURES FROM
ENSEMBLE MEANS OUT OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, BUT ARE
STILL GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE FULL ENSEMBLE DISTRIBUTION AS
REASONABLE POSSIBILITIES. FURTHERMORE, THEIR QPF IS SIMILAR IN
MANY RESPECTS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.
THEREFORE, A BROAD MODEL BLEND IS THE PREFERENCE, WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS WEIGHT ON THE GFS AND NAM, AND GREATER WEIGHT ON THE ECMWF
AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHICH HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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