882
FXUS10 KWNH 111623
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1223 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2019
VALID SEP 11/1200 UTC THRU SEP 15/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z INITIAL MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND, STRONGEST WEIGHT TO THE 12Z GFS
12Z GFS/00Z ECWMF FOR TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING FL
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THE LATEST GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
MASS FIELD FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A NOTED
MINOR SLOWER TREND IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL PROGRESSION IN ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS
WHICH IS NOW SLOWER THAN THE NON-NCEP 00Z GUIDANCE. THEREFORE,
PREFERENCE IS GIVEN THERE TO THE 12Z GFS. THE FLOW PATTERN WILL
DEAMPLIFY/BECOME ZONAL OVER THE CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH SLOWS
THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES.
THE GREATEST MODEL VARIABILITY REMAINS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A
TROUGH FROM NEAR THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD ACROSS FL INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. PREFERENCE REMAINS IN THE SIMILAR 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
WITH THE 00Z UKMET AND 12Z NAM NOT INCLUDED AS THEY ARE OUTLIERS.
OTHERWISE, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS PREFERRED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
JACKSON
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