882   
FXUS10 KWNH 111623  
PMDHMD  
  
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1223 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2019  
  
VALID SEP 11/1200 UTC THRU SEP 15/0000 UTC  
  
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
  
12Z INITIAL MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST  
CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND, STRONGEST WEIGHT TO THE 12Z GFS  
            12Z GFS/00Z ECWMF FOR TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING FL  
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE  
  
THE LATEST GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR  
MASS FIELD FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A NOTED  
MINOR SLOWER TREND IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONTAL PROGRESSION IN ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS  
WHICH IS NOW SLOWER THAN THE NON-NCEP 00Z GUIDANCE. THEREFORE,  
PREFERENCE IS GIVEN THERE TO THE 12Z GFS. THE FLOW PATTERN WILL  
DEAMPLIFY/BECOME ZONAL OVER THE CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH SLOWS  
THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  
  
THE GREATEST MODEL VARIABILITY REMAINS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A  
TROUGH FROM NEAR THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD ACROSS FL INTO THE GULF OF  
MEXICO. PREFERENCE REMAINS IN THE SIMILAR 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF  
WITH THE 00Z UKMET AND 12Z NAM NOT INCLUDED AS THEY ARE OUTLIERS.  
  
OTHERWISE, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD THE  
ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS PREFERRED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.  
  
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
  
JACKSON  
  
  
 
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