377   
FXUS10 KWNH 180436  
PMDHMD  
  
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1236 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2019  
  
VALID SEP 18/0000 UTC THRU SEP 21/1200 UTC  
  
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
  
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: MODEL BLEND WEIGHTED TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEANS  
            ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GREATEST WEIGHT  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE  
  
THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO  
FEATURE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE  
ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF DAY 3, THE TROUGH  
AXIS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE DETERMINISTIC  
MODEL HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND WELL WITHIN THE  
ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MODEL PREFERENCE AND BLENDS WILL BE ANCHORED  
BY GREATER WEIGHT PLACED ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, SPECIFICALLY THE  
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GEFS ENSEMBLE. THESE WERE ALSO USED TO TREND  
THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION  
IMELDA IN TEXAS.  
  
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
  
TAYLOR  
  
  
 
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