671
FXUS10 KWNH 190501
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
100 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2019
VALID SEP 19/0000 UTC THRU SEP 22/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND INCREASINGLY WEIGHTED TOWARD
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH AND AN EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. IN GENERAL, THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE FORECAST, WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY RELATED TO HOW
THE TROUGH EJECTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE 12Z ECMWF IN
PARTICULAR SHOWS THIS TROUGH LAGGING THE MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT THE
00Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION AS WELL AND
ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY SUNDAY, THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER TROUGH COMING INTO THE WEST, BUT THERE IS BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDING T.D. IMELDA,
THE GUIDANCE HAS STRONG AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THIS SYSTEM NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITH THE SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN
OPEN TROUGH BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE UP TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH
THIS WEEKEND.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CLUSTERING, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WILL
AGAIN BE PREFERRED WITH WEIGHTING TOWARD THE LATEST GEFS AND ECENS
MEANS, AND THIS WILL ALSO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE TIMING SPREAD
SEEN WITH THE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
ORRISON
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