464   
FXUS10 KWNH 040438  
PMDHMD  
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1237 AM EDT FRI OCT 04 2019  
  
VALID OCT 04/0000 UTC THRU OCT 07/1200 UTC  
  
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
  
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
 EXCEPTION: NON-UKMET AFTER 72HRS.  
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE  
  
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE VERY AGREEABLE WITH  
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE MAIN FEATURES.  THE EXITING  
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING NEW ENGLAND SURFACE WAVE IS VERY STRONG,  
AS WELL AS THE LARGER FULLER LATITUDE TROF ENTERING THE WEST COAST  
CURRENTLY.  THIS TROF WILL SPUR SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE WY ROCKIES  
LATER TODAY AND SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS  
THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-MS VALLEY BY LATE SUN.  THERE  
ARE SMALL INTERNAL DIFFERENCES, SUCH AS THE NAM A BIT FURTHER  
NORTH AND THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER/SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE WAVE (EVEN  
COMPARED TO THE ECENS MEAN), BUT THIS IS FAIRLY MINOR TO HAVE  
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.   THIS IS EVEN  
STRONGER GIVEN THE SLOWING OF THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT IN  
THE OH/TN VALLEY.  
  
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT SPREAD OCCURS WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPSTREAM  
KICKER SHORTWAVE/APPROACHING/DIGGING JET.  THE UKMET IS VERY FLAT  
AND WELL NORTH, THIS IS OPPOSED BY THE ECMWF/CMC AND GFS WHICH ARE  
DEEPER, WHILE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR  
THIS FEATURE, A NON-UKMET BLEND IS PREFERRED AFTER 72HRS.  
  
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
  
GALLINA  
  
  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab HPC Page

Main Text Page