569
FXUS10 KWNH 040623
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 AM EDT FRI OCT 04 2019
VALID OCT 04/0000 UTC THRU OCT 07/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
07Z UPDATE: THE 00Z UKMET TRENDED TOWARD DIGGING THE KICKER WAVE,
MUCH LIKE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. WHILE IT REMAINS A BIT FAST
ALOFT WITH THE TROF AXIS AND JET STREAK, IT IS NOT PROGRESSING THE
FRONTAL ZONE/QPF SWATH FURTHER EAST AND IS QUITE COMPARABLE TO THE
OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
SURFACE WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS BY LATE SAT, MATCHING THE
12Z ECENS MEAN AS WELL AS THE UKMET/CMC. OVERALL A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD AS PREFERENCE AT HIGH CONFIDENCE
HERE, AS WELL AS, ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AS WELL.
---PRIOR DISCUSSION---
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE VERY AGREEABLE WITH
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE MAIN FEATURES. THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING NEW ENGLAND SURFACE WAVE IS VERY STRONG,
AS WELL AS THE LARGER FULLER LATITUDE TROF ENTERING THE WEST COAST
CURRENTLY. THIS TROF WILL SPUR SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE WY ROCKIES
LATER TODAY AND SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-MS VALLEY BY LATE SUN. THERE
ARE SMALL INTERNAL DIFFERENCES, SUCH AS THE NAM A BIT FURTHER
NORTH AND THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER/SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE WAVE (EVEN
COMPARED TO THE ECENS MEAN), BUT THIS IS FAIRLY MINOR TO HAVE
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THIS IS EVEN
STRONGER GIVEN THE SLOWING OF THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT IN
THE OH/TN VALLEY.
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT SPREAD OCCURS WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPSTREAM
KICKER SHORTWAVE/APPROACHING/DIGGING JET. THE UKMET IS VERY FLAT
AND WELL NORTH, THIS IS OPPOSED BY THE ECMWF/CMC AND GFS WHICH ARE
DEEPER, WHILE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR
THIS FEATURE, A NON-UKMET BLEND IS PREFERRED AFTER 72HRS.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
GALLINA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page