389
FXUS10 KWNH 251918
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2019
VALID OCT 25/1200 UTC THRU OCT 29/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS
T.D. SEVENTEEN IS MAINLY A SHORT TERM CONCERN BEFORE IT IS
ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH T.D. SEVENTEEN WITH THE
12Z GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWING MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE FIRST 12-24
HOURS COMPARED TO THE 15Z NHC ADVISORY.
..SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON FRI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPPING THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL ADVANCE
EAST TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE MINOR AND THEREFORE A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND WILL BE PREFERRED.
..AMPLIFYING TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
..ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OH VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z CMC, 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS NOW ONLY
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS PREFERENCE WHICH INCLUDED THE 00Z
CMC/ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN. THE 12Z UKMET REMAINS A BIT SLOWER THAN
THE CONSENSUS BUT IT HAS TRENDED FASTER COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS
00Z CYCLE. THE 12Z NAM IS FASTER/WEAKER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AT
THE SURFACE, ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW PLOTS AND THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
MEANS SUPPORT A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND 12Z CMC WITH ONLY
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM. THIS THINKING ALSO HOLDS
TRUE FOR A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO ORGANIZE NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
..UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SAT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z NAM, 12Z UKMET
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
A LARGE TROUGH, FORECAST TO AMPLIFY INTO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND,
WILL HAVE A SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD REACH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER
BUT THE 12Z RUN REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE DETERMINISTIC SUITE.
ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER
THEIR PAST 4 12Z/00Z CYCLES BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN.
THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC ALL TRENDED FASTER TO SOME DEGREE, BUT
MORE SO IN THE ECMWF. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS A FASTER OUTLIER WHILE
THE 12Z CMC A BIT TOO SLOW. A FAVORABLE MIDDLE GROUND AND
CONSENSUS APPROACH CONTINUES TO FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 120Z ECMWF,
12Z NAM AND 12Z UKMET.
..SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER LOW OVER MT/ND BY MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SO A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND APPEARS SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME TO USE FOR THE
PREFERENCE.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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