408
FXUS10 KWNH 261847
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2019
VALID OCT 26/1200 UTC THRU OCT 30/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
*** NOTE THAT THE 12Z CMC WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION'S COMPOSITION.
..AMPLIFIED TROUGH/CLOSED LOW LIFTING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY
..POST T.C. OLGA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND WILL BE PREFERRED.
...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY AND
REACHING THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...
...WEAK SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON 12Z GFS BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH'S PROGRESSION OUT WEST BEGIN
TO BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT EARLY MONDAY WITH TIMING ISSUES
CONCERNING EJECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
12Z GFS IS FASTEST, AND HAS BEEN WITH SIMILAR SYSTEMS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE/WESTERN CONUS TROUGH PATTERN OF LATE.
ENSEMBLE TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING HAVE BEEN SLOWER WITH THE
GEFS ADJUSTING TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF ENSEMBLES. PREFER
TO STAY NEAR THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN OR PERHAPS A SHADE FASTER
WHICH IS CLOSE TO A NON 12Z UKMET BLEND OF THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
..SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER LOW OVER MT/ND BY MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
ANY MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE MINOR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
...CLOSED LOW LIKELY SETTING UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR
TUESDAY...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 00Z CMC
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SYSTEMS DIGGING INTO THE WEST THAT WE'VE SEEN
RECENTLY, THE 12Z GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST WITH A LIKELY CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. TRENDS IN THE GEFS AND GFS
SUPPORT A SLOWER/MORE WESTWARD SHIFT OVER THE PAST FOUR 12Z/00Z
CYCLES. CURRENTLY, NEAR THE ECMWF MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF APPEARS LIKE
THE MOST FAVORABLE POSITION, WITH THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z CMC THE NEXT
CLOSEST MODELS TO THAT POSITION. THE 12Z UKMET TRENDED WEST FROM
ITS 00Z RUN BUT IT REMAINS A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN
PREFERRED AT THIS TIME VALID TUESDAY EVENING. A 3-WAY BLEND
BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z NAM AND 00Z CMC IS PREFERRED AT THIS
TIME.
..POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON 12Z UKMET BLEND
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE
THERE IS CURRENTLY AN ENHANCED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF
CUBA WHICH SOME OF THE MODELS TRACK AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP MOISTURE
IN PLACE WITH THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL JOIN WITH AN
AXIS OF HIGH MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE CROSSING THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE VARYING
SOLUTIONS SEEN IN THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE 12Z UKMET THE MOST DEVELOPED. HOWEVER,
FOR NOW, THE PREFERENCE WILL BE FOR A NON 12Z UKMET BLEND WHICH
DOWNPLAYS ANYTHING MORE ORGANIZED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
THINKING FROM THE NHC.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
OTTO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page