144  
FXUS10 KWNH 290435  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1234 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2019  
 
VALID OCT 29/0000 UTC THRU NOV 01/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
 
   
..TRAILING FRONT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST
 
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL CROSS  
THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW  
PRESSURE TO QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION AND LIFT INTO ONTARIO. AN  
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MEANWHILE WILL CROSS THE OH VALLEY, LOWER  
GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  
THE SOUTHWESTERN TAIL OF THE FRONT WILL STALL THOUGH OVER THE  
LOWER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COAST AS THE STRONG UPSTREAM HEIGHT  
FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BEGIN TO EJECT EAST OUT INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT AND  
CONTINUITY SUCH THAT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WILL SUFFICE FOR THIS  
TIME FRAME.  
 
   
..POWERFUL CLOSED LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON TUESDAY
 
   
..ENERGY EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
 
   
..COLD FRONT/SURFACE WAVE NEAR OH/TN VALLEYS BY THURSDAY
 
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN AND 18Z GEFS MEAN  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...BECOMING BELOW AVERAGE BY THU/FRI  
 
WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SHORTWAVE  
ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY  
WILL DIG VIGOROUSLY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF ACROSS COLORADO. THE  
00Z FV3-GFS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF ITS HEIGHT  
FALLS EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH AN EMPHASIS  
ON THE 36 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME AS IT INSISTS ON A MORE  
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z NON-NCEP  
SUITE OF GUIDANCE AND ALSO THE 00Z NAM. THE FV3-GFS IS ALSO LIKELY  
MUCH TOO STRONG/AMPLIFIED AS THE LATEST GEFS/ECENS MEANS FAVOR A  
LESS AMPLIFIED SYSTEM AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR.  
BETWEEN 72 AND 84 HOURS (LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY), THE NAM  
TAKES OVER FOR BEING THE STRONGEST SOLUTION BUT APPEARS TO BE TOO  
FAR NORTH OVERALL WITH THE TRACK OF ITS CLOSED LOW FEATURE. DURING  
THIS TIME, THE CMC BECOMES A WEAK/PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER AND THE  
UKMET A RELATIVELY SLOW OUTLIER. WITH THE FV3-GFS STILL APPEARING  
TOO DEEP THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, THIS LEAVES THE ECMWF WITH  
SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS, AND THUS A BLEND OF THESE  
SOLUTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED.  
 
   
..NEXT UPPER TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY
 
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
THE MODELS ADVERTISE A NEW UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH A  
NEW COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. MODEL SPREAD IS  
MINIMAL WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, SO A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WILL BE  
PREFERRED FOR THE TIME BEING.  
 
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ORRISON  
 

 
 
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