144
FXUS10 KWNH 290435
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1234 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2019
VALID OCT 29/0000 UTC THRU NOV 01/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
..TRAILING FRONT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION AND LIFT INTO ONTARIO. AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MEANWHILE WILL CROSS THE OH VALLEY, LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE SOUTHWESTERN TAIL OF THE FRONT WILL STALL THOUGH OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COAST AS THE STRONG UPSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BEGIN TO EJECT EAST OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY SUCH THAT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WILL SUFFICE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.
..POWERFUL CLOSED LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON TUESDAY
..ENERGY EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
..COLD FRONT/SURFACE WAVE NEAR OH/TN VALLEYS BY THURSDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN AND 18Z GEFS MEAN
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...BECOMING BELOW AVERAGE BY THU/FRI
WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY
WILL DIG VIGOROUSLY AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF ACROSS COLORADO. THE
00Z FV3-GFS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF ITS HEIGHT
FALLS EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH AN EMPHASIS
ON THE 36 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME AS IT INSISTS ON A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z NON-NCEP
SUITE OF GUIDANCE AND ALSO THE 00Z NAM. THE FV3-GFS IS ALSO LIKELY
MUCH TOO STRONG/AMPLIFIED AS THE LATEST GEFS/ECENS MEANS FAVOR A
LESS AMPLIFIED SYSTEM AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR.
BETWEEN 72 AND 84 HOURS (LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY), THE NAM
TAKES OVER FOR BEING THE STRONGEST SOLUTION BUT APPEARS TO BE TOO
FAR NORTH OVERALL WITH THE TRACK OF ITS CLOSED LOW FEATURE. DURING
THIS TIME, THE CMC BECOMES A WEAK/PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER AND THE
UKMET A RELATIVELY SLOW OUTLIER. WITH THE FV3-GFS STILL APPEARING
TOO DEEP THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, THIS LEAVES THE ECMWF WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS, AND THUS A BLEND OF THESE
SOLUTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED.
..NEXT UPPER TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
THE MODELS ADVERTISE A NEW UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
NEW COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. MODEL SPREAD IS
MINIMAL WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, SO A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WILL BE
PREFERRED FOR THE TIME BEING.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
ORRISON
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