039
FXUS10 KWNH 012255
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
654 PM EDT FRI NOV 01 2019
VALID NOV 01/1200 UTC THRU NOV 05/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z FINAL MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CONUS THROUGH 84HRS (05/00Z)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/UKMET/12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
19Z UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM 12Z ECMWF/CMC WITH THE PREFERENCE REMAINING
WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. MINOR SHORTWAVE DIFFERENCES ON DAY 3
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDS INTO ALASKA AND A SPRAWLING
TROUGH PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT. TWO MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACK THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS EAST TO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND DESCENDS INTO MN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN FL
WHERE A FRONT REMAINS STALLED.
THERE IS EXCELLENT GLOBAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST TROUGH INTO
SUNDAY AND ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE SECOND TROUGH.
SPECIFICALLY, THE 12Z NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH WITH
RESULTING DAY 3 PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAN THE
CONSENSUS. THE 00Z CMC IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WHICH FOCUSES
PRECIP FARTHER WEST THAN THE CONSENSUS. THE 00Z UKMET HAD BROUGHT
AN IMPULSE OFF THE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON DAY 2, RESULTING IN SOME NOTABLE PRECIP NORTH
OF THE BIG BEND. HOWEVER, THE 12Z UKMET HAS NOTABLY BACKED OFF
THIS SOLUTION. THEREFORE, THE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z
GFS/UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF WARRANTS AN ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
THAT CONSENSUS SOLUTION.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
JACKSON
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