926  
FXUS10 KWNH 040421  
PMDHMD  
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1120 PM EST SUN NOV 03 2019  
 
VALID NOV 04/0000 UTC THRU NOV 07/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
   
..00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
 
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
 
...OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH 07.12Z  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC  
PATTERN WITH MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS WELL WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF  
THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE BROAD GLOBAL SCALE TROF CENTERED ON S  
HUDSON/JAMES BAY DOMINATES FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES  
TO THE EAST COAST, WITH EMBEDDED SHORTER-LENGTH SHORTWAVE FEATURES  
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH  
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AN ELONGATED CLOSED LOW IN THE  
CALIFORNIA BIGHT, SOUTHEAST OF THE DOMINANT NORTHEAST PACIFIC  
RIDGE. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH  
ONLY THE WESTERN RIDGE DAMPENING BY TUES, ALLOWING ENERGY TO DRAW  
THE CLOSED LOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE WED INTO THURS.  
 
THE NORTHERN STREAM WHILE HAVING STUBBLE DEPTH/TIMING DIFFERENCES  
ARE IN VERY STRONG AGREEMENT. THE SOUTHWEST AND SHEARING OUT  
CLOSED LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IN  
TIMING, AS THE 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH UNCHARACTERISTICALLY, BEING SLOW  
TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THE IMPACT TO SURFACE TROF AND MOISTURE/QPF  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FAIRLY SMALL OVERALL GIVEN A GOOD  
AGREEMENT ON THE RETURN MOISTURE MAGNITUDE/TIMING OUT OF THE GULF  
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS, WHILE THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAM OUT OF  
THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC IS NOT AFFECTED BY THE SHEARING OUT TROF  
(GIVEN PARALLEL FLOW TO SHEARING ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH, A GENERAL  
MODEL BLEND CAN BE EMPLOYED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE  
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE CONUS.  
 
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
GALLINA  
 

 
 
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