676
FXUS10 KWNH 041934
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EST MON NOV 04 2019
VALID NOV 04/1200 UTC THRU NOV 08/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
..12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH 08.00Z
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
19Z UPDATE: NOT MUCH SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE REST OF THE
12Z GUIDANCE NOW AVAILABLE. THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE STILL IS A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE SHEARING OUT THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE SPREAD IS LOWERED
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BY 84 HOURS, THERE IS NOT TOO MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN, SHOWING THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE WESTERN U.S. THE
WPC PREFERENCE FOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND REMAINS.
---PREVIOUS DISCUSSION---
OVERALL, MODEL AGREEMENT IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE CONUS THROUGH
THE NEXT 84 HOURS (08.00Z) WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY/MID PART OF THE WEEK.
CURRENTLY, A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, DRIFTING EASTWARD SLOWLY. IN THE NEXT
48 HOURS, THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHEAR OUT AND OPEN
UP AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING.
WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT, THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES TO NOTE. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO BE THE
SLOWER, MORE CLOSED SOLUTION WHILE THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE IS A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH 60 HOURS.
AS SOME OF THIS ENERGY BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH, SOME AMPLIFICATION AND NEGATIVE TILTING COMBINED WITH
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS FAVORS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END (BUT MORE SO JUST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD). AS SUCH, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND CAN BE EMPLOYED
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD ACROSS THE CONUS.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
TAYLOR
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