777
FXUS10 KWNH 051851
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
151 PM EST TUE NOV 05 2019
VALID NOV 05/1200 UTC THRU NOV 09/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
..12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH 09.00Z
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH 08/00Z
BLEND OF 05/00Z GEFS/ECMWF/ECENS MEAN AND 05/12Z NAM
THEREAFTER
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THRU 08/00Z
BELOW AVERAGE THEREAFTER
THE 05/12Z SUITE OF NCEP GUIDANCE LARGELY MAINTAINED CONTINUITY
WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS, LEAVING THEIR RELATIVE POSITION CLOSE TO
THE 05/12Z NON-NCEP OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEANS. IN
PARTICULAR, THE 05/12Z GFS REMAINED A FAST OUTLIER IN THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE DAY 3 PERIOD.
THE 05/12Z ECMWF HAD TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PRESSING THE FRONTAL ZONE
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM TO TREND
FASTER AND EVEN A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWARD, AND INCREASE PHASING
SIMILAR TO THE GFS. AS SUCH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IS MUCH
FURTHER NORTH THOUGH STILL NOT AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE GFS. THE
UKMET REMAINED OUTSIDE THE REALM OF THE ENSEMBLE SUITE WITH THE
05/12Z CMC ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE
UKMET DID NUDGE CLOSER TO THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS. AS A RESULT,
THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINED. GIVEN ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VARYING
FROM RUN TO RUN, AND THE BETTER VERIFYING GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO
AGREE FURTHER NORTH, WILL ADJUST AND SUPPORT A CHANGE TOWARD A
05/12Z ECWMF/NAM BLEND WITH SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT EC ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO HANDLE SOME OF THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
BANN
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