628
FXUS10 KWNH 060643
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
143 AM EST WED NOV 06 2019
VALID NOV 06/0000 UTC THRU NOV 09/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
..00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH 09.12Z
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
EXCEPTION: NORTHEAST AFTER 08/00Z - GFS/ECMWF BLEND
CENTRAL US/CANADA BORDER SAT - NON-UKMET BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT NORTHEAST (SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE)
07Z UPDATE: THE TREND TOWARD A GENERAL CONSENSUS IS GETTING
BETTER, THOUGH THE ECMWF, LIKE THE GFS BEFORE IT, HAS TRENDED
FASTER AND EAST. THE UKMET/CMC BOTH SHOW SOLID EVOLUTION
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF PARTICULARLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MASS FIELDS, THOUGH BOTH ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE SURFACE WAVE REDUCING AFFECTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND RELATIVE
TO THE INITIAL PREFERENCE.
ELSEWHERE, THERE IS SOLID AGREEMENT, WITH EXCEPTION TO THE CLIPPER
LOW SLIDING ALONG THE CENTRAL US/CANADA BORDER LATE FRI INTO SAT
WHERE THE UKMET LAGS A BIT TOO MUCH TO SUGGEST ITS ELIMINATION
FROM THE BLEND.
ALL CONSIDERED, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND CAN BE SUPPORTED THROUGHOUT
CONUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST, WHERE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
IS SUPPORTED AT INCREASED CONFIDENCE (SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE) AND
A NON-UKMET BLEND IN THE NORTHERN TIER SAT.
---PRIOR DISCUSSION---
ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND CLOSED LOW SHEARING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PHASE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND FURTHER AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC SUPPORTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE FROM LAST EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
THEREFORE A BIT MORE ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE
COMPARED TO A DEEPER MORE COMPACT CYCLONE FRI...BECOMING SO
FURTHER EAST ON SAT INTO MARITIME CANADA. THE UKMET AND MCC ARE
BOTH WELL DISPLACED AND MORE POSITIVE TILT WITH/AFTER THE PHASING
PROCESS, THIS IS NOT FAVORED AND BOTH ARE ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF
A MODERATE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE 00Z NAM, IS ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY
FASTER, BUT MUCH STRONGER TOO COMPARED TO THE 18Z GEFS AND 00Z
GFS, THIS LEADS TO THE CYCLONE DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH AS WELL
AND AWAY FROM THE BEST CLUSTERING AND CONTINUITY SO IS ALSO NOT
FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS LEAVES THE 12Z ECMWF, WHICH IS
A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED DUE TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOUTHERN STREAM AND
A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTHERN STREAM 00Z GFS, THAT IS ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF GEFS MEMBERS. AS SUCH PREFERENCE WILL BE IN A
ECWMF/GFS BLEND (SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF). GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO THE ECENS/GEFS SUITE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING TO
AVERAGE AFTER 08/00Z.
NOTE: GUIDANCE WITH THE CONVECTION/FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY (AS WELL AS COASTAL TX
DEVELOPMENT LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY) IS SOLIDLY SUPPORTED BY THE
NAM AS WELL AS THE GFS/ECWMF TO HAVE SOME INCLUSION THERE. ALSO,
THE NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A
NAM/GFS/ECWMF BLEND AT ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
GALLINA
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