741
FXUS10 KWNH 081850
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 PM EST FRI NOV 08 2019
VALID NOV 08/1200 UTC THRU NOV 12/0000 UTC
..SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
..12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..SHORTWAVES CUTTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDGE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 08/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH INCREASING WEIGHT
TOWARD ECMWF/GFS
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES ON THE TEMPORARY
BREAKDOWN OF AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING CONVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE 08/12Z UKMET LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH A FAVORED MODEL BLEND REPRESENTED BY A 08/12Z
ECMWF/NAM/GFS BLEND.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS
TROUGHING ADVANCING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA REACHES THE NORTHERN
TIER ON SUNDAY. THE 08/12Z GFS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT CONTINUES TO LIE ON THE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS FOR DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THE 500 MB HEIGHT
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS SHOW THE 12Z GFS AS
THE FASTEST (ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT AND THE ECMWF AND
NAM HAVE DECREASED QUITE A BIT SINCE THE 12Z MODE RUNS ON
THURSDAY)...WHILE THE UKMET MAKES UP THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION. THINK THE COMBINATION OF THE 08/12Z
ECMWF, NAM AND GFS STILL APPEAR TO BE A FAVORABLE BLEND EARLY
ON...BUT TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND GFS BLEN BY LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
..REMAINDER OF OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
A RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST STARTS OFF THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD. THERE IS FLATTENING OF THE FLOW INTO SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AMPLIFICATION BEGINS AGAIN
BY MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND SHOULD ADDRESS ANY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODELS. NO CHANGES TO THE PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
BANN
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