741   
FXUS10 KWNH 081850  
PMDHMD  
  
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
149 PM EST FRI NOV 08 2019  
  
VALID NOV 08/1200 UTC THRU NOV 12/0000 UTC  
  
..SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
   
..12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..SHORTWAVES CUTTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDGE  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: 08/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH INCREASING WEIGHT  
TOWARD ECMWF/GFS  
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE  
  
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES ON THE TEMPORARY  
BREAKDOWN OF AN ANOMALOUS EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE THROUGH  
SATURDAY...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING CONVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS  
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE 08/12Z UKMET LOOKS TO BE THE MOST  
AGGRESSIVE WITH A FAVORED MODEL BLEND REPRESENTED BY A 08/12Z  
ECMWF/NAM/GFS BLEND.   
  
ATTENTION THEN TURNS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS  
TROUGHING ADVANCING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA REACHES THE NORTHERN  
TIER ON SUNDAY. THE 08/12Z GFS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MODEL  
CONSENSUS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT CONTINUES TO LIE ON THE  
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS FOR DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THE 500 MB HEIGHT  
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTH CENTRAL  
U.S. FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS SHOW THE 12Z GFS AS  
THE FASTEST (ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT AND THE ECMWF AND  
NAM HAVE DECREASED QUITE A BIT SINCE THE 12Z MODE RUNS ON  
THURSDAY)...WHILE THE UKMET MAKES UP THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM  
WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION. THINK THE COMBINATION OF THE 08/12Z  
ECMWF, NAM AND GFS STILL APPEAR TO BE A FAVORABLE BLEND EARLY  
ON...BUT TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND GFS BLEN BY LATER  
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.   
  
   
..REMAINDER OF OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE  
  
A RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST STARTS OFF THE SHORT  
RANGE PERIOD. THERE IS FLATTENING OF THE FLOW INTO SATURDAY  
EVENING WITH A FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP FROM THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AMPLIFICATION BEGINS AGAIN  
BY MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND  
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.  A GENERAL  
MODEL BLEND SHOULD ADDRESS ANY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN  
INDIVIDUAL MODELS. NO CHANGES TO THE PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES.  
  
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
  
BANN  
  
  
 
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