895
FXUS10 KWNH 110443
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1142 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2019
VALID NOV 11/0000 UTC THRU NOV 14/1200 UTC
..SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
...00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES AND
CONFIDENCE...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S./GREAT
LAKES TODAY/TONIGHT...
..SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY MORNING
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON 12Z UKMET BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE 12Z UKMET'S 500 MB TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE REMAINING DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.
...COLD FRONT NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A COLD FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE CORRESPONDING
SHORTWAVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SHOW UP BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE 00Z GFS FASTEST, THE
DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH THOUGH THAT TIME TO SUPPORT A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND.
..CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
WHILE A SUBTLE TREND TO BE FASTER HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE ENSEMBLES
THURSDAY MORNING, THE 12Z UKMET REMAINS FASTER THAN A MAJORITY OF
THE LATEST MODELS. THE 00Z NAM WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE 00Z
GFS, 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC FITTING NICELY IN THE MIDDLE WITH
AGREEMENT FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
..WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING CALIFORNIA MID-WEEK
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ARE PREVALENT IN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FOR NOW, A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPROMISE IS
RECOMMENDED WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
OTTO
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