666
FXUS10 KWNH 140656
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 AM EST THU NOV 14 2019
VALID NOV 14/0000 UTC THRU NOV 17/1200 UTC
..SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF, EC ENS, GEFS, GFS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
---06Z UPDATE---
NO CHANGE TO THE PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE. THE 00Z GEFS DID TREND
CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS, SO GREATER WEIGHT WILL BE PLACED ON THE
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
---PREVIOUS DISCUSSION---
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING
OF TWO SIGNIFICANT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM BY THIS WEEKEND.
THE FIRST WILL RESULT FROM A PHASING OF A CURRENTLY EJECTING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
PLAINS, WITH CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. THE SECOND WILL BE A TRAILING WAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
THE ECMWF, GFS, AND THEIR ENSEMBLES OFFERED REASONABLE CONSISTENCY
ON THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE. THE 00Z GFS HAS DEAMPLIFIED THE WAVES
SLIGHTLY AND SPED THEM UP RELATIVE TO THE 12Z RUN, LEADING TO
GREATER INCONSISTENCY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENSEMBLE MEANS
(PARTICULARLY WITH THE TRAILING WAVE). THE MODEL PREFERENCE IS TO
LEAN TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, SUPPORTED MORE BY THE 12Z ECMWF.
THE 00Z GFS IS INCORPORATED INTO THE PREFERENCE EARLIER IN THE
PERIOD, WITH LESS WEIGHT AFTER 16.06Z (FRIDAY NIGHT). WHILE THE
00Z GFS COULD REPRESENT A NEW MODEL TREND, IT HAS LESS ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT AT THE MOMENT.
OTHERWISE, THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ELSEWHERE AND/OR LIMITED FORECAST PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE, THE MODEL PREFERENCE SHOULD BE SATISFACTORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY AS WELL.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
LAMERS
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