666   
FXUS10 KWNH 140656  
PMDHMD  
  
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
155 AM EST THU NOV 14 2019  
  
VALID NOV 14/0000 UTC THRU NOV 17/1200 UTC  
  
..SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
  
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF, EC ENS, GEFS, GFS  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE  
  
---06Z UPDATE---  
NO CHANGE TO THE PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE. THE 00Z GEFS DID TREND  
CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS, SO GREATER WEIGHT WILL BE PLACED ON THE  
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
  
---PREVIOUS DISCUSSION---  
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING  
OF TWO SIGNIFICANT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM BY THIS WEEKEND.  
THE FIRST WILL RESULT FROM A PHASING OF A CURRENTLY EJECTING UPPER  
LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE  
PLAINS, WITH CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS  
WEEKEND. THE SECOND WILL BE A TRAILING WAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE  
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY.  
  
THE ECMWF, GFS, AND THEIR ENSEMBLES OFFERED REASONABLE CONSISTENCY  
ON THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE. THE 00Z GFS HAS DEAMPLIFIED THE WAVES  
SLIGHTLY AND SPED THEM UP RELATIVE TO THE 12Z RUN, LEADING TO  
GREATER INCONSISTENCY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENSEMBLE MEANS  
(PARTICULARLY WITH THE TRAILING WAVE). THE MODEL PREFERENCE IS TO  
LEAN TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, SUPPORTED MORE BY THE 12Z ECMWF.  
THE 00Z GFS IS INCORPORATED INTO THE PREFERENCE EARLIER IN THE  
PERIOD, WITH LESS WEIGHT AFTER 16.06Z (FRIDAY NIGHT). WHILE THE  
00Z GFS COULD REPRESENT A NEW MODEL TREND, IT HAS LESS ENSEMBLE  
SUPPORT AT THE MOMENT.  
  
OTHERWISE, THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC  
PATTERN ELSEWHERE AND/OR LIMITED FORECAST PRECIPITATION.  
THEREFORE, THE MODEL PREFERENCE SHOULD BE SATISFACTORY FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY AS WELL.  
  
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
  
LAMERS  
  
  
 
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