501  
FXUS10 KWNH 181618  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1117 AM EST MON NOV 18 2019  
 
VALID NOV 18/1200 UTC THRU NOV 22/0000 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
 
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE  
 
THROUGH 48 HOURS, FORECAST MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT  
WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WILL HAVE A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS  
ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH PRESENT. HERE, THE NAM IS A  
BIT AGGRESSIVE/AMPLIFIED WITH ITS LEADING SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY,  
BUT THE MASS FIELDS ARE NOT TERRIBLY DIFFERENT. OUT WEST, THE  
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF BAJA AND A DROPPING SHORTWAVE ALONG THE WEST  
COAST WILL ABSORB AND BECOME A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER  
SOUTHERN NEVADA. AFTER ABOUT 60 HOURS, THE TYPICAL BIASES SEEN IN  
THE GUIDANCE START TO SHOW WHERE THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE REST,  
PULLING THE FEATURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS EARLY AS  
THURSDAY EVENING. THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC OFFER SOME UTILITY, SO  
OVERALL A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.  
 
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
TAYLOR  
 

 
 
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