767
FXUS10 KWNH 200644
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
144 AM EST WED NOV 20 2019
VALID NOV 20/0000 UTC THRU NOV 23/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
---06Z UPDATE---
THE GLOBAL MODELS, INCLUDING THE 00Z CMC, HAVE CONVERGED
SUFFICIENTLY WITH THE DEPICTION OF THE EJECTING TROUGH THAT A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS NOW PREFERRED.
---PREVIOUS DISCUSSION---
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AND MAJOR FEATURES, AND SIMILAR
PLACEMENT OF QPF AREAS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SPREAD THAT
SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECTS QPF EXISTS WITH THE EJECTING WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z CMC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED, FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM, AND
FASTER THAN ALL THE OTHER MODELS. THIS LEADS TO A NORTHWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF ITS QPF AXIS, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THE CMC IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE MODEL
PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE REMAINING
MODELS, THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION OF
HIGHEST QPF ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY -- FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE PREFERENCE
IS FOR A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITHOUT INCLUDING THE 12Z CMC.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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