565
FXUS10 KWNH 260448
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1147 PM EST MON NOV 25 2019
VALID NOV 26/0000 UTC THRU NOV 29/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-CMC MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT 3
DAYS: 1) NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES,
AND 2) RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST
COAST.
THE 12Z CMC CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER FOR THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST SYSTEM WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING AND AT TIMES,
A SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST SCENARIO WHERE THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
SUBTLY SHIFTED TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.
THE GFS MAY BE A TOUCH FAST BUT OVERALL THE SPREAD FOR THE LOW
TRACK HAS LESSENED SUCH THAT A NON-CMC BLEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
SUFFICIENT.
FOR THE WEST COAST, THE MODELS HAVE TIGHTENED ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE VERY ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE CENTER SLAMMING INTO THE CA/OR
COAST. THE GFS IS A TOUCH FAST HERE AS WELL, BUT THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS SIMILAR POSITION AND DEPTH WHEN THE LOW MAKES
LANDFALL (SUB 980 MB).
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
TAYLOR
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