780   
FXUS10 KWNH 260840  
PMDHMD  
  
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
339 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2019  
  
VALID NOV 26/0000 UTC THRU NOV 29/1200 UTC  
  
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
  
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON-CMC MODEL BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE  
  
08Z UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTED WITH THE LATEST 00Z  
GUIDANCE. THE NON-CMC BLEND IS STILL PREFERRED.  
  
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH  
THE TWO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT 3  
DAYS: 1) NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES,  
AND 2) RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST  
COAST.  
  
THE 12Z CMC CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER FOR THE  
PLAINS/MIDWEST SYSTEM WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING AND AT TIMES,  
A SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST SCENARIO WHERE THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS  
SUBTLY SHIFTED TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.  
THE GFS MAY BE A TOUCH FAST BUT OVERALL THE SPREAD FOR THE LOW  
TRACK HAS LESSENED SUCH THAT A NON-CMC BLEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE  
SUFFICIENT.  
  
FOR THE WEST COAST, THE MODELS HAVE TIGHTENED ON THE EVOLUTION OF  
THE VERY ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE CENTER SLAMMING INTO THE CA/OR  
COAST. THE GFS IS A TOUCH FAST HERE AS WELL, BUT THE REST OF THE  
GUIDANCE SHOWS SIMILAR POSITION AND DEPTH WHEN THE LOW MAKES  
LANDFALL (SUB 980 MB).  
  
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
  
TAYLOR  
  
  
 
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