262
FXUS10 KWNH 261636
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1135 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2019
VALID NOV 26/1200 UTC THRU NOV 30/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
MODELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CLUSTERED WITH REDUCED SPREAD ON
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, AND THE SERIES OF LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES NOTED, BUT THEY DO NOT DEVIATE SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN TO WARRANT EXCLUSION FROM THE MODEL BLEND. FOR
INSTANCE, THE 00Z ECMWF DIGS THE TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST MORE,
WHICH MAY AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND MOUNTAIN RANGES WITH
THE STRONGEST OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. HOWEVER, THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
IS WELL WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND IS A REASONABLE
POSSIBILITY. FURTHERMORE, MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT, WITH
THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN THE OZARKS REGION
ON FRIDAY ON THE 12Z NAM. THEREFORE, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS
PREFERRED.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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