912
FXUS10 KWNH 101630
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1129 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2019
VALID DEC 10/1200 UTC THRU DEC 14/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..EASTERN CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
THE MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE EASTERN CONUS IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LARGE SCALE, SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE, TIMING THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS WELL
AGREED UPON, WITH JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED. OVERALL, WITH THE
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS PREFERRED.
..WESTERN TO CENTRAL CONUS (GULF COAST DAY 3)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GEFS/ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THURSDAY. THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH SOME
TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE 00Z UKMET IS A STEP AHEAD WITH THE SHORTWAVE POSITION WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF LAGS THE REST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE 12Z
NAM/GFS OFFER A MIDDLE GROUND, CONSENSUS SOLUTION, AS THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO BE A TOUCH TOO SLOW (THE ECENS MEAN IS AHEAD OF THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN). SURFACE LOW POSITIONS ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR.
FOR THIS CYCLE, A PREFERENCE OF THE 12Z GFS, 12Z NAM, AND 00Z
ECENS MEAN ARE PREFERRED.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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