199
FXUS10 KWNH 121631
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1131 AM EST THU DEC 12 2019
VALID DEC 12/1200 UTC THRU DEC 16/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12 UTC MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND (LESS WEIGHT TOWARD 12Z GFS EAST
COAST)
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND LIFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, TAKING
AN INTERIOR TRACK. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AVERAGE
CLUSTERING WITH THE LOW TRACKS AND WITH MINOR ENSEMBLE SPREAD
THROUGH 60 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE EAST
COAST A BIT FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE, AND IS NOT
FAVORED AS MUCH THROUGH 48 HOURS. IN ITS WAKE, COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES. HERE, MODEL
AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY HIGH SUCH THAT A GENERAL MODEL IS PREFERRED.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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