429
FXUS10 KWNH 122026
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
325 PM EST THU DEC 12 2019
VALID DEC 12/1200 UTC THRU DEC 16/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND (LESS WEIGHT TOWARD 12Z GFS EAST
COAST)
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
20Z UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE REST OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE. THE GFS STILL REMAINS A BIT FAST COMPARED TO THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE EAST COAST SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WEIGHT THE GFS LESS FOR THE EASTERN U.S., OTHERWISE
THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND LIFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, TAKING
AN INTERIOR TRACK. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AVERAGE
CLUSTERING WITH THE LOW TRACKS AND WITH MINOR ENSEMBLE SPREAD
THROUGH 60 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE EAST
COAST A BIT FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE, AND IS NOT
FAVORED AS MUCH THROUGH 48 HOURS. IN ITS WAKE, COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES. HERE, MODEL
AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY HIGH SUCH THAT A GENERAL MODEL IS PREFERRED.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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