488
FXUS10 KWNH 140638
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
138 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2019
VALID DEC 14/0000 UTC THRU DEC 17/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
ONLY MINOR TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WERE SEEN WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THEREFORE A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS PREFERRED. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOTED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC
COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS 12Z CYCLES.
...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND
AND REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY...
...SURFACE LOW ORGANIZING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TIMING DIFFERENCES AT 500 MB SHOW UP IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE 00Z NAM OUTRACING THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI
PLOTS AT 500 MB, THE NAM DOES NOT SHOW UP AS AN OUTLIER BUT DOES
LIE TOWARD THE FASTER END OF THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
(INITIALIZED 12Z/13). THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET TRENDED SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND A BIT NORTH WITH THE DOWNSTREAM WARM FRONT ON MONDAY
RELATIVE TO THEIR PREVIOUS 12Z CYCLES. TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLES
OVER THEIR PAST 4 12/00Z CYCLES SHOW OPPOSING TRENDS WITH THE GEFS
FASTER AND ECENS SLOWER. THEREFORE, THE PREFERENCE IS TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SPREAD, WHICH IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE
SLIGHTLY FASTER 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER 00Z ECMWF.
POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LOWERS CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.
...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NEARING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TUESDAY MORNING...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE 00Z CMC ADJUSTED NORTHWARD WITH THE MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
12Z/17. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC SPREAD IS SMALL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE SPREAD
IS SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN THE RELATIVELY GOOD 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT
WOULD SUGGEST SO CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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