937   
FXUS10 KWNH 211640  
PMDHMD  
  
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1140 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2019  
  
VALID DEC 21/1200 UTC THRU DEC 25/0000 UTC  
  
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
  
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS  
  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE  
  
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL  
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MASS FIELDS ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE NEXT  
3 DAYS. THE CLOSED LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL DEEPEN AND EXPAND AS IT  
MOVES TO THE FL PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL  
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR TIMING AND  
STRENGTH AT 500 MB. EVEN AT THE SURFACE, THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE  
VARIOUS LOW TRACKS/CENTERS HAS LESSENED AND THE ENSEMBLE PLOTS  
ALSO SHOW LESSENING SPREAD THROUGH 84 HOURS. OUT WEST, AN ACTIVE  
AND UNSETTLED FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE  
LONGWAVE TROUGH. BUT IN GENERAL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE  
TIMING AND STRENGTH, WITH SOME VARIATIONS SEEN IN THE QPF.  
OVERALL, A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IS PREFERRED FOR THE CONUS  
THIS CYCLE.  
  
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
  
TAYLOR  
  
  
 
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