476
FXUS10 KWNH 211951
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2019
VALID DEC 21/1200 UTC THRU DEC 25/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
20Z UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTICED WITH THE REST OF THE
12Z GUIDANCE AND THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND IS STILL PREFERRED.
---PREVIOUS DISCUSSION---
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MASS FIELDS ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE NEXT
3 DAYS. THE CLOSED LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL DEEPEN AND EXPAND AS IT
MOVES TO THE FL PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR TIMING AND
STRENGTH AT 500 MB. EVEN AT THE SURFACE, THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS LOW TRACKS/CENTERS HAS LESSENED AND THE ENSEMBLE PLOTS
ALSO SHOW LESSENING SPREAD THROUGH 84 HOURS. OUT WEST, AN ACTIVE
AND UNSETTLED FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. BUT IN GENERAL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH, WITH SOME VARIATIONS SEEN IN THE QPF.
OVERALL, A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IS PREFERRED FOR THE CONUS
THIS CYCLE.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
TAYLOR
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