898
FXUS10 KWNH 220635
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2019
VALID DEC 22/0000 UTC THRU DEC 25/1200 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO CONVERGE ON RELATIVELY SIMILAR FORECASTS
AND SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY THE 500MB HEIGHT SPREAD ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS WELL
BELOW THE PREVIOUS 30-DAY AVERAGE OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CONUS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DETAILS SUCH AS HOW THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EJECTS EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC, AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE BASE
OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES DON'T APPEAR TO HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL AFFECT ON QPF. THEREFORE, THE PREFERENCE WAS TO LEAN
TOWARD A BROAD-BASED MODEL BLEND.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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