631
FXUS10 KWNH 221608
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1108 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2019
VALID DEC 22/1200 UTC THRU DEC 26/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES & FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ANY NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR
SHORT RANGE FORECASTS.
LOWER 48 AND VICINITY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO CONVERGE ON RELATIVELY SIMILAR FORECASTS
AND SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH DETAILS SUCH AS
HOW THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EJECTS EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC, WHERE THE NON-NAM GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SLOWING TREND DUE
TO A CORRESPONDING SLOWING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE NEAR
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER, AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/POSSIBLE DEEP
LAYER CYCLONE NEAR CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. THE PREFERENCE WAS TO
LEAN TOWARD A BROAD-BASED MODEL BLEND TO DEAL WITH LINGERING
DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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