924
FXUS10 KWNH 151947
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 PM EST WED JAN 15 2020
VALID JAN 15/1200 UTC THRU JAN 19/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
EXCEPTION: NON-CMC DAY 3 WESTERN U.S.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
20Z UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTED WITH THE REST OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE TO GO AGAINST THE PREVIOUS PREFERENCE OF A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND OUTSIDE OF THE CMC FOR THE WESTERN U.S. ON DAY 3.
TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, THE FIRST CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE OTHER ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW
AND WEST COAST LATER TODAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM NOW IS SHOWING ABOVE
AVERAGE CLUSTERING WITH THE LOW TRACK AS IT MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HERE, DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE MINOR AND A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND IS PREFERRED.
IN THE DAY 2/3 PERIOD, A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WESTERN US THE FIRST COMING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SHOWS AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
CLUSTERING BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES DEVELOP WITH THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE COMING IN LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE CMC BEING A BIT OF AN OUTLIER.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST PREFERENCE IS FOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
(HIGHER WEIGHTS TOWARD THE ECWMF/ECENS) WITH A NON-CMC BLEND FOR
THE WESTERN U.S. ON DAY 3.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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