866
FXUS10 KWNH 011843
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
141 PM EST SAT FEB 01 2020
VALID FEB 01/1200 UTC THRU FEB 05/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH LATEST PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
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..TROUGH EVOLUTION OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY
..DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND
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~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT THE
LOW CENTER WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CANADA, AND ESPECIALLY THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND WILL BE PREFERRED.
..DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
..SURFACE WAVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/CMC/ECMWF AND 12Z GEFS/00Z ECENS MEANS
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THE 12Z GFS AGAIN JUST AS IT IN PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUES TO BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
EVOLUTION OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS IN
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS HEIGHT FALLS ALSO RESULTS IN THE
GFS BEING MORE OUT OF TOLERANCE WITH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE
CONCERNING THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY BY
MONDAY. THE 12Z UKMET DOES APPEAR TO BE A BIT SLOW WITH THE TROUGH
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT
THE REMAINING GUIDANCE LED BY THE 12Z NAM, 12Z CMC AND 12Z ECMWF,
AND ALSO THE LATEST GEFS/ECENS MEANS SHOW GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH TIMING/DEPTH AND SURFACE WAVE ACTIVITY. A BLEND OF
THE NON-GFS/UKMET WILL ACCORDINGLY BE PREFERRED.
..NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CLIPPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
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PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CLIPPING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. THE 12Z UKMET IS ON THE FAST SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE REMAINING MODELS RATHER
WELL CLUSTERED. SO, A NON-UKMET BLEND WILL BE PREFERRED FOR NOW.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
ORRISON
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