852
FXUS10 KWNH 021633
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1131 AM EST SUN FEB 02 2020
VALID FEB 02/1200 UTC THRU FEB 06/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH LATEST PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~
..DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEK
..SURFACE WAVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z NON-NCEP MODELS AND 06Z GEFS/00Z
ECENS MEANS
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THE 12Z GFS AND TO AN EXTENT THE 12Z NAM JUST AS IT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS CONTINUE TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLUTION OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS DRIVES A MORE PROGRESSIVE SURFACE
WAVE EVOLUTION OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE GULF
COAST STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH THE GFS IN PARTICULAR
OUTRUNNING THE GUIDANCE. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LED BY THE 06Z GEFS
AND 00Z ECENS SUITES FAVOR THE LESS PROGRESSIVE CONSENSUS LED BY
THE 00Z NON-NCEP (UKMET, CMC AND ECMWF) SOLUTIONS. WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR A NON-NCEP BLEND ALONG WITH THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS.
...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z NON-NCEP MODELS AND 06Z GEFS/00Z
ECENS MEANS
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH CLIPPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS, GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT THE 12Z NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS DO TEND
TO BE MORE OUT OF TOLERANCE WITH THE NON-NCEP SOLUTIONS AND THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NON-NCEP CONSENSUS
WITH THIS ENERGY AS WELL GIVEN THE BETTER CLUSTERING/ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT TOWARD THIS CAMP.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
ORRISON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page